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美联储决议:维持利率不变,市场预期今年仍将有三次降息(全文)

作者:迈科期货 来源:迈科期货 2025-05-08

香港万得通讯社报道,北京时间5月8日凌晨2时,美联储发布议息决议声明,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间,符合市场预期。这是今年1月以来美联储连续第三次维持利率不变。声明显示,美国经济前景不确定性进一步增加。美联储重申关注其双重使命中两方面的风险。尽管净出口波动影响了数据,但经济活动仍继续以“稳健的速度”扩张。美联储利率决议公布后,交易员继续认为美联储将在七月之前降息,仍然预期今年将有三次降息。

以下是利率决议全文:

尽管净出口的波动影响了相关数据,但近期指标显示,美国经济活动持续稳健扩张。近几个月来,失业率稳定在较低水平,劳动力市场状况依旧稳固,不过通货膨胀率仍处于略高状态。

联邦公开市场委员会致力于在长期内实现充分就业,并将通货膨胀率维持在2%的目标水平。目前,美国经济前景的不确定性进一步加剧。委员会密切关注其双重使命(充分就业与稳定物价)所面临的风险,认为失业率上升和通货膨胀加剧的风险均有所增加。

为实现上述目标,委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行进一步调整的幅度和时机时,委员会将仔细评估新出炉的数据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险状况。委员会还将继续减持美国国债、机构债务以及机构抵押贷款支持证券。委员会坚定致力于推动充分就业,并使通货膨胀率回归2%的目标。

在评估合适的货币政策立场时,委员会将持续监测新获取信息对经济前景的影响。一旦出现可能阻碍委员会实现目标的风险,委员会将做好准备,适时调整货币政策立场。委员会在评估时会综合考虑多方面信息,包括劳动力市场状况、通货膨胀压力、通胀预期,以及金融和国际形势的发展变化。

对此次货币政策行动投赞成票的有:主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(JeromeH.Powell)、副主席约翰·威廉姆斯(JohnC.Williams)、迈克尔·巴尔(MichaelS.Barr)、米歇尔·鲍曼(MichelleW.Bowman)、苏珊·柯林斯(SusanM.Collins)、丽莎·库克(LisaD.Cook)、奥斯坦·古尔斯比(AustanD.Goolsbee)、菲利普·杰斐逊(PhilipN.Jefferson)、尼尔·卡什卡利(NeelKashkari)、阿德里亚娜·库格勒(AdrianaD.Kugler)、阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆(AlbertoG.Musalem)和克里斯托弗·沃勒(ChristopherJ.Waller)。尼尔·卡什卡利(NeelKashkari)本次会议作为候补成员参与投票。

关于货币政策实施的决定

为落实联邦公开市场委员会在2025年5月7日声明中宣布的货币政策立场,美联储做出以下决定:

美联储理事会一致投票决定,自2025年5月8日起,将准备金余额的付息利率维持在4.4%。

作为政策决定的一部分,联邦公开市场委员会投票指示纽约联邦储备银行公开市场交易台,在未收到其他指示前,依据以下国内政策指令开展系统公开市场账户的交易操作:

自2025年5月8日起,联邦公开市场委员会指示交易台:

根据需要开展公开市场操作,将联邦基金利率维持在4.25%至4.50%的目标区间。

开展常备隔夜回购协议操作,最低投标利率为4.5%,总操作限额为5000亿美元。

开展常备隔夜逆回购协议操作,投标利率为4.25%,每个交易对手的单日限额为1600亿美元。

对美联储持有的每月到期美国国债本金支付金额中超出50亿美元月度上限的部分,通过拍卖进行展期。赎回美国国债附息证券,赎回金额最高可达该月度上限;若附息证券本金支付金额低于月度上限,则相应赎回国库券。

将美联储持有的机构债务和机构抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)每月收到的本金支付金额中超出350亿美元月度上限的部分,再投资于美国国债,使再投资国债的期限结构大致与未偿美国国债的期限结构相匹配。

若因操作需要,允许再投资金额与规定金额存在适度偏差。

在相关行动中,美联储理事会一致投票批准将一级信贷利率维持在现行的4.5%水平。

上述信息将适时更新,以反映联邦公开市场委员会或美联储理事会对美联储实施货币政策所使用的操作工具和操作方法做出的决策细节。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Neel Kashkari voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on May 7, 2025:

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 4.4 percent, effective May 8, 2025.

As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective May 8, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 4-1/4 to 4‑1/2 percent.

Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 4.5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.

Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 4.25 percent and with a per‑counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.

Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $5 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.

Reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.

Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons."

In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 4.5 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

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